This week at progressive state blogs: Respecting voter initiatives in UT; gun control win in FL
This week at progressive state blogs is designed specifically to focus attention on the writing and analysis of people focused on their home turf. Here is the November 17 edition. Inclusion of a blog post does not necessarily indicate my agreement with—or endorsement of—its contents.
At Eclectablog of Michigan, LOLGOP writes—It’s not just the biggest House wave since Watergate. Democrats also won Senate seats in 7 Trump states:
In addition to the biggest Democratic House wave since Watergate, Democratic U.S. Senate candidates’ victories in at least seven states trump won in 2016 — Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and West Virginia. And this may be the promising sign from the midterm elections as we look ahead to 2020 — especially when you consider that Republican Senate candidates won zero races in the states Clinton carried.
However, despite these wins, Trump is still has “a very good chance of winning a second election,” argues Dr. Benjamin Waddell. He credits this advantage to the current White House occupant’s “demographic advantage,” which is a nice way of saying the states likely to decide the next presidential race are filled with a lot of white people.
“According to the Census Bureau, 76 percent of the population in Michigan is white, 82 percent in Wisconsin and 78 percent in Pennsylvania,” Waddell writes. “These numbers grow when we look at voting-age populations. Whites account for 79 percent of the voting-age population in Michigan, 86 percent in Wisconsin and 81 percent in Pennsylvania.”
His analysis is complicated by what actually happened in these states on November 6th.
Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin also won with, respectively, 53.3, 57.7 and 49.6 percent of the vote. These three states gave Trump his slight, fluke electoral college “win” in 2016, as he pulled in just 47.5, 48.2 and 47.2 percent of the vote. So Trump’s party lost three governors races and Senate races in the three states he needs for reelection.
And one Democratic candidate for Senate — Tammy Baldwin — actually got 66,620 more total votes in an off-year year election than Trump did in a presidential year. That’s almost three times Trump’s 22,748 margin of victory over Clinton in the state.