Trump's base of support continues to be much softer than advertised
Donald Trump’s base of support continues to be much more tenuous than conventional wisdom suggests. While no one knows exactly how impeachment will play next November and what might transpire between now and then, Trump voters are more iffy about him than anyone ever lets on.
In November, I covered polling showing that 65% of Republicans aren’t “proud” of Trump and just 58% say they are “excited” about him. Those are some pretty low numbers for someone who supposedly inspires a cult following among the GOP faithful. Following up on that softness comes a December poll from Civiqs testing how sure voters are about their support for Trump. Civiqs laid out six scenarios for respondents: I support President Trump, and there’s almost nothing that could change that; I support President Trump right now, but I’m open to changing my mind if things change later; I neither support nor oppose President Trump; I oppose President Trump right now, but I’m open to changing my mind if things change later; I oppose President Trump, and there’s almost nothing that could change that; unsure. Here’s the results:
Support Trump, won’t change: 30%
Support Trump, could change later: 14%
Neither support nor oppose Trump: 3%
Oppose Trump, could change later: 5%
Oppose Trump, won’t change: 48%
Two things jump out about those numbers immediately: 1) 14% of Trump supporters are open to changing their mind about him; 2) stalwart opposition to Trump registers nearly 20 points higher than diehard support for him. Additionally, Trump’s growth opportunities are minimal since literally 0% are unsure about him and only 8% seem tepidly open to supporting him.
Again, we’re still a long way from the election, but polls throughout 2019 have continued to demonstrate just how hardened voter opposition is to Trump. So the next time you see Trump spewing absolutely repulsive things at a raucous rally, just remember that only about a third of the country is 100% committed to his reelection.